ESSAY: Fear & Loathing in Immigration

It's hard to find a good scenario on what's to come.

If there’s one issue that put Trump in the White House twice, it’s immigration.

From the moment he came down that gold-plated escalator it’s been the issue he always goes back to if he needs to rile up his base or divert attention away from something he’s done.

It’s amazing looking back at that 2015 announcement speech — in a room filled with literal fake supporters paid to be there — and remember how outside the norms it was at the time. Even saying that Mexico was purposefully sending criminals and rapists to America was shocking, which was the point.

How far we’ve come, and how much has been normalized.

The main point of this essay is to look at where we are given Trump 2.0 and what may lie ahead — because that rhetoric has ramped up so much since 2015 that it’s not hard to see how Trumps actions on immigration could spin out of control and put this country in a very dangerous place that I don’t think has been talked about nearly enough.

But, before we get there it’s important to examine how we got here — expose some of the biggest lies and misconceptions surrounding immigration, and point out some of the ways that the issue can be sensibly solved and why those solutions are being ignored so Trump and MAGA Republicans can exploit the issue.

As a side note: I’m going to call undocumented immigrants illegal throughout this essay. In progressive circles that moniker is shunned because it treats immigrants like common criminals when all they’re doing it trying to do is find a better life for their families. I get that, and agree philosophically. That said, the illegal term is technically correct, but more importantly, that semantic ship has sailed — illegal is almost universally used, and we waste energy and focus trying to change it.

The Political Exploitation of Failure

The last time a major immigration bill was passed was during the Reagan Administration. That sweeping bill was a mix of security and amnesty — giving legal status to scores of immigrants who had been living and working in America for years, if not decades — bringing them out of the shadows to become fully productive members of American society.

That 1987 bill was a bipartisan effort signed by Reagan and considered very mainstream at the time. Do a quick search and you can find plenty of clips of Reagan extolling the virtues of immigrants and immigration in general. The vast majority of Republicans agreed. Yes, waves of immigrants have been attacked throughout our history (Irish, Italians, Germans, Chinese, you name it) but mainstream thought still tilted to being pro-immigration.

Not only was our country founded on immigration, but free-market Republicans understood the value of immigrant labor on our economy. Sensible immigration was both the right and smart thing to do.

That’s not to say that anti-immigration sentiment was absent from American politics writ large in the late 80s and early 90s. In 1994 California Governor Pete Wilson tried to pass Proposition 187 which would have denied benefits to illegal immigrants under the states generous laws.

That proposal crashed and burned, destroying Wilson’s political career in the process. But, Republican politicians took note of how the immigration issue united and motivated their voting base. Prop 187 may have died on the ballot, but like an anti-Jesus, an anti-Christ, if you will, it would rise again.

Anti-immigration became a staple of the right wing talk radio movement of the 90s and beyond. On TV, Lou Dobbs (then on CNN) became one of the most fervent advocates, and like an unchecked virus, it slowly infected the entire base of the Republican party — fueled by lies and misconceptions that became the bedrock of the movement.

Left unchecked since the Reagan-era bill, immigration was in dire need of new legislation by the time Obama was elected in 2008.

Obama had run on passing a sweeping immigration reform bill widely modeled on the same carrot and stick approach in 1987. But, by that time amnesty had been turned into a Chernobyl-level radioactive pejorative amongst the Republican base.

Democrats moved to the right, putting more emphasis on the sticks instead of the carrots, but it was too late. Even moderate Republicans who likely wanted to find solutions were now at the whim of their own primary voters who had turned any legislation including a pathway to citizenship dead on arrival.

Cross the base and likely lose your seat.

The die was cast.

Enter Trump.

Not only did his racist rhetoric amp up the anti-immigrant frenzy, but he offered a simplistic solution that terrified Republicans could glom onto: Build the Wall. For Republicans with a firing neuron, Trump was the Monster via the good doctor Frankenstein — the likely 2016 loser who could still be prodded with a torch or two.

We all know what happened with that.

The Monster won. Mexico didn’t pay for shit. The few miles of wall that were build were a scalable joke, and Trump’s political guru Steve Bannon was convicted for grifting MAGA voters on a wall scheme that was just that.

Enter 2024.

There was one last chance for major legislation under President Biden.

Led by Republicans, a comprehensive bill was crafted that was almost all stick and no carrot. Enough Democrats were willing to go along with the bill — likely thinking that a second Biden/Harris administration could add the carrots — that it would have passed last summer.

Then Trump intervened and summarily killed the bill.

He made no bones about why.

Any kind of solution would hurt his ability to use the issue as a political bludgeon during the campaign. To win the presidency that would make the White House his only prison. If tough a immigration law was enacted — the toughest in history — his base might be less motivated to vote. Needless to say, it was a cynical and craven move — completely in line with everything Trump does and has always done.

What Could (and Still Could) Be

It’s important to note that the broad components of successful immigration reform are out there. This truly isn’t rocket science.

Yes, the problem is complicated and big, but it’s nowhere near impossible. The issue has been studied by experts for years, and solution-based legislation sits in the proverbial desk drawers of Congress.

I’ve mentioned the carrot and stick approach, and that combination is always the template for successful legislation. It’s the only method that has ever worked.

On the stick side, there needs to be more funding for boarder security, both physical and bureaucratic.

Walls do have their place, but technological enhancements offers the best return on investment. From new scanning methods for vehicles at border crossing and ports of entry to catch drugs and drug smugglers, to drones and high-tech surveillance in desolate border areas — common-sense security is of course a huge component of securing our boarder and minimizing confusion and hardship.

While it shouldn’t even need to be said, razor wire strung across rivers and other deadly ideas of the like can NEVER be the answer. It is cruel and inhumane and 100% un-American. Killing desperate men, women, and children is beyond morally repugnant. And it’s not addressing the problem.

Human infrastructure is also a big, big part of the security side of the solution. Yes, more (and better trained) boarder agents are needed. But just as vital are more immigration judges and case workers who can go through the giant backlog of cases and bring more order to the process. That is imperative.

On the carrot side, broad amnesty is again needed.

DACA, Dreamers, and parents need to be put on the road to citizenship as part of a broader solution. That may not be politically viable right now, but it’s (again) both the morally right thing to do, and the economically smart thing to do.

Not only does our economy need the workers, but it’s much, much cheaper to go after the small number of actual immigrant criminals in this country without casting a terrible and wide razor net.

The MOST ignored component of successful immigration reform is getting to the root of the problem, which is itself a carrot/stick combo.

Immigrant families don’t make the harrowing and often deadly trek to the United States because they’re enamored by the Spanish language dub of Keeping up with the Kardashians. And parents certainly don’t pay everything they have to send their children with coyote smugglers because they want their kids to go on a fucking field trip.

It’s the desperate conditions in their home countries in Central and South America that drive them to the United States — where the possibility of being paid pennies on the dollar and working their asses off is better than their current conditions.

From extreme poverty to dictatorships and political persecution, stabilizing this area of the world can do more than anything else to stem the flow of immigrants.

During the 60s and 70s the United States was deeply involved in the region, but not in the right way. We used our CIA and other methods to topple a number of (primarily Communist) regimes. We took another similar bite at the apple with Iran/Contra under Reagan. Even if you want to argue that the intent was right, that method was never successful.

Even when run by terrible regimes, people in independent countries have a tendency not to want a foreign power toppling their government, and the propaganda it created arguably made things worse — helping to prop up terrible leaders and movements that hurt the very people we were trying to help.

While Democratic administrations have often tried to do the right thing in the region, the effort has never been nearly as robust and multi-faceted as needed to solve the problems.

There’s a number of reasons for that.

Foreign aid (a big part of the solution) is generally unpopular and each country in the region has a particular set of problems that make a wholistic solution complicated to both undertake and explain succinctly to the American people.

But, if we’re every really going to solve the problem, it has to be done.

We need to treat this hemisphere of ours as a region as importantly as we do Europe.

We need a 360-degree plan that brings in the United Nations, empowers the Organization of American States, and promises both aid and private sector investment in exchange for political reform.

Political stability and economic security in the region could virtually end our immigration crisis. We need leaders who can clearly explain these benefits to the American people and are willing to do the work and expend the political capital to make it happen.

It’s big and complicated, but it’s not beyond our capacity.

There’s another compelling reason to tackle it: Blunting the growing influence of Russia and China in the region. If we actually care about Communism and dictatorships, there we are.

Countering the Lies and Myths on Immigration and Immigrants

Let’s be honest, those very real solutions seem like they are a million miles away right now. And we as individuals might not think we have any power to make anything happen.

But we do.

And one of them is pushing back against the lies and misconceptions that have been so cynically propagated in the last few decades.

You might think that even that is a lost cause — that immigrant hate and draconian immigration policy is supported by a majority of Americans.

I would argue that it’s not nearly as true as it is often portrayed in the mainstream media.

During the recent election a number of polls showed that a majority (54-55%) wanted to stop immigration. Those polls got widespread coverage. The very important detail that was missed in reporting on those polls was that most worded the question as stopping criminal immigrants from coming into the country.

That’s a hugely important distinction that was ignored. I mean, who doesn’t want to stop criminals from entering the country?

The second widely ignored fact was that many of the same polls also showed a somewhat less majority of Americans (51-53%) agree that more legal immigration is needed.

Even more impressive was a poll I saw of Republicans in Iowa during the 2024 primary there showing a big majority of Republicans in favor of the same. That’s a small Republican state that understands the agricultural economics that drive it. And yet, it doesn’t.

Tragically, the MAGA core will never accept sensible and broad reform.

But, even given all the lies and disinformation there’s a huge chunk of Americans that inherently understand the carrot/stick approach. That means pushing back against the lies can still sway voters and bring more to sensible solutions.

So, let’s dispel with some of the most common lies out there:

The Open Border Myth

Let’s level-set politically. Online and in real life, I’ve been in and out of Democratic politics — and throughout all the years of my adulthood had my finger on the pulse of liberal thought. I can tell you that I’ve NEVER met anyone in person who is for Open Borders. And in all the online communities and reading I do, and have ever done, it’s as rare as a snowflake in hell.

Are there some people out there?

Sure, a tiny minority that’s probably smaller than those who think the Earth is flat. As much mileage as right wing media gets out of the idea, it’s just not a thing.

Sanctuary Cities

Speaking of weaponized ideas, the dreaded Sanctuary Cities are almost always in practice not the same as how they are portrayed in MAGA media.

The primary reason for them is to keep immigrants out of the shadows when reporting crime, which is vital to law enforcement. If immigrants are scared about deportation by local law enforcement they won’t cooperate which makes it harder to find more criminals of every stripe. It also stops local law enforcement from wasting valuable resources going after immigrants who may be technically illegal but have committed no crime.

I may not agree with every immigration law of every sanctuary city, but those two pillars are at the heart of most.

Criminals & Crime

No, countries aren’t emptying their prison and sending criminals to our country.

After Trump even more disgustingly made that claim last fall his campaign could never provide any proof to justify the assertion in any way.

That’s because it’s a lie.

How normalized and vile that became. Directed to a city and population in our country. Targeting people in a city. How can anyone believe that is right?

Of course, when you’re talking about millions of people, you can always find exceptions to the rule and exploit them. So, yes, virtually any crime committed by an illegal immigrant plays into the crisis story.

But, it’s just not true.

What used to widely-accepted is still true: The vast, vast majority of immigrants are risking their lives to get in this country because they are despite for a better life. If you were by chance born there you’d likely do the same.

As for criminality when here, illegal immigrants commit less crime than Americans.

I’d argue that it’s largely because they are hard-working decent people. But, there’s a practical reason too. Immigrants want to stay here. Committing a crime and getting on the police and ICE radar is the quickest way to be found and kicked out.

Drugs & Immigration

Contrary to MAGA talking points, drug smuggling by immigrants coming across our boarders is not a serious part of that serious problem.

Yes, there is smuggling by Mexican drug cartels through tunnels and across the border itself. And, of course we need to go after them.

But, the reality is that the huge majority of drugs coming into this country are perpetrated by American drug dealers using legal crossing points. It’s also smuggled into the country by international cartels using shipping containers and legal ports of entry.

Drugs just aren’t coming into this country via a mom and her child with just the clothes on their backs.

Immigrants and Our System

Immigrants don’t vote in our elections.

It’s illegal, virtually impossible to do, and something barely any of them would want to attempt.

It’s very easy for illegal immigrants to get the paperwork needed to work. Hell, it’s an encouraged and unspoken part of our system given what they bring to our labor force.

And, yes, they almost all pay taxes.

But, getting a fake birth certificate or social security card that passes muster of our voting laws is a whole different deal. It’s wildly expensive to do. And like any other crime that would put them on law enforcement radar, not worth the risk to damn near any immigrant. Multiple studies have shown it’s almost non-existent — like being struck by lightning. Twice.

Social services given to illegal immigrants is more complicated, on both the state and federal level. Some federal assistance is available for those in the country after five years, but most are generally ineligible beyond a few exceptions. As for states, it’s a mix that (as you can imagine) roughly follows the red/blue politics of each.

So, yes, complicated.

But, the idea that immigrants are here sucking our system dry is not true. Numerous studies have shown they take less than native-born Americans. First and foremost, that’s because immigrants work hard and prop up huge sectors of our economy. Economically they are a net benefit — and it’s not even close.

Well, that was more than I expected to write, even though I honestly tried to keep it brief. But, that’s all very, very close to the verifiable truth.

If that means anything.

Trump and the Worst-Case Scenario

So that’s where we find ourselves with Trump 2.0 a reality?

The first Trump regime was bad for immigrants, no doubt. The family separation policy was disgusting and left children who have still not been reunited with their parents. But, the images that came out of that made it deeply unpopular and in hindsight things could have been much worse.

The Wall never happened, and the onset of COVID closing the border stopped other policies that could have been crueler than just being kept out.

We’re not going to be so lucky this go round.

While he lied about it during the campaign, the immigration plans laid out in Project 2025 are stunning in their breath and depravity. The plans calls for the expulsion of millions of illegal immigrants in a forced round-up using the American military and constructing giant deportation camps to make it happen.

Of all the things Trump tried to distance himself from regarding Project 2025 he made no real attempt to downplay his immigration plans. This is, and always will be, his bread and butter.

The expectations — and stated plans by the new DHS secretary — was for a shock and awe opening salvo almost immediately after Trump was sworn in without his hand on the bible. That didn’t go according to plan, and we don’t really know why it didn’t. My guess is that the bureaucratic reality made swift, bold, and disruptive action harder than they expected.

Make no mistake, the authors of Project 2025 came up with their plans methodically, bringing to bear governmental experience they tried to bake into the process to cut through red tape and, frankly, scare the shit out of people ASAP.

It’s true that ICE has made some high-profile raids meant to not just scare immigrants but also the opposition to their tactics. It hasn’t fully happened yet, but there’s no doubt it’s coming.

If you’ve read this far, you likely are interested in the topic at hand. But, even for those indifferent or ambivalent on the issue, I think what may be coming has the potential to do damage that goes well beyond the topic of immigration and, indeed, to the core of the Democracy vs. Dictatorship that is at the heart of Trump 2.0.

Trust me when I say that I’m not trying to be reactionary or unduly scare people. But, even before the election I’ve been deeply worried at how this particular issue is going to play out, and how a series of events around it could spiral into a very frightening crisis in this country.

Maybe it won’t all happen, or strong opposition will blunt things. But what follow is (I believe) a very credible scenario on how things could go down.

Executive Branch Power Consolidation

This is already happening on many fronts.

Most shockingly in the Department of Justice and (specifically) in the FBI. In other Executive Branch departments as well. None of these are normal as part of a typical administration transition. Even early on, it’s the most radical execution of independence and consolidation of presidential power in modern history.

Yes, presidents oversee and are in charge of, the executive branch of government. These are the moves of a man who is bending the will of his cabinet departments in ways that other “strong men” have done to wield dictatorial powers.

There is no denying that.

To really go all in on deportations approaching anything close to P25s goals requires tons of money.

Right now, Trump is financially limited by the Continuing Resolution passed by the last Congress. Also know that by law the Executive Branch is required to spend the money Congress gives them for exactly the purposes stated in a budget or CR.

In his first week Trump had the OMB (Office of Management and Budget) Director send a dictate to freeze virtually all discretionary spending. For the moment it backfired and was put on hold pending legal review.

Much was made at the time that this was a first step in cutting funding for programs Trump doesn’t like. I think that’s true, but only part of the bigger plan. Because a new budget isn’t happening that quickly — and will likely be a DEFCON 1 nightmare — I think Trump planned to shift money into DHS to give them that shock and awe they craved.

Late Friday the Washington Post reported that Elon Musk flunkies were trying to gain access to the super-secret/safe system that actually writes the check for the U.S. government — $6 trillion a year. The non-political head of that program resigned in protest, but the details on what Musk/Trump wants to do is unclear.

It could very well be to physically shift funding to DHS and ICE and who know what else.

Courting Permission

Let’s get legality out of the way before we drill down too deep.

Even the stuff I mentioned above is all illegal by any historical reading of the law and the Constitution. So, we already know that Trump is willing to break the law. He may be stopped by lower courts.

Or when he’s had his fill of being slowed down he may just ignore them.

Trump thinks (and was given) that anything he does under the duties of his office is legal, not matter what as dictated by the Supreme Court. Given that get out of jail free card and his lifelong breaking of laws lower courts may not slow him down. And if the Supreme Court finally finds an issue that goes beyond their job-duty-dictate who says he abides by them?

If that sounds crazy, you simply haven’t been closely watching. Who will stop Trump when he gets on a roll and dominos start falling?

Law & Disorder

The last resort, the last guardrail if Trump ignores the law and the courts is the military. What he does with the military will be the tipping point to know if we are on the Express Lane to Dictatorship.

There has already been a great deal of talk about a Patriot Commission to investigate the top brass of our Armed Forces. That is exactly what it sounds like, and what happens as authoritarians take over.

Trump has already sent troops to the border, which is technically at the core of their mandate. But, beyond money, what is needed most to implement a mass deportation plan is personnel.

We know that Trump tried to use the military against peaceful protesters in D.C. during his first term. He was stopped in the last moment by General Milley. Turning troops on Americans or twisting them into a mass deportation strikes at the very heart of our Republic and would be vigorously pushed back on by most senior military officials.

Unless they’ve all been purged with only Trump loyalists remaining.

With a Patriot Commission.

That is a chilling, but very real possibility.

If a military purge happens, ALL bets are off.

How it Could Go Down

So, let’s game this out.

Trump gets his hands on the funds. Beyond pin prick operations he goes into cities with ICE and the military rounding up illegals and anyone else caught up in the net.

When this happens there will be massive street protests, and schools and churches will serve as sanctuaries for immigrants. That will happen in any number of cities.

What does Trump do then?

Soldiers pledge an allegiance to the Constitution, not the President and they are duty-bound to NOT carry out illegal orders. How many will follow Trump or the Constitution.

What about the National Guard?

They are under the direct supervision of governors, but part of the military under the Commander in Chief.

What about operations in blue cities within red states?

What about local police forces, even in big cities? If you think they are not peppered with right wing radicals you, again, haven’t been keeping up. Which side do they choose?

And what about the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers that Trump just pardoned?

Think about that.

Do they instigate violence in otherwise peaceful protests as they often did during BLM marches? Does that give Trump the cover to initiate the Insurrection Act or even Martial Law?

And couldn’t those white nationalist groups be sworn in as an extra-military immigration force to do the dirtiest of the dirty work?

And what about the scores of paramilitary crazies with a basement full of artillery?

They don’t need much of a nudge to head to downtown Chicago to kill brown people and libtards when they know that it’s open season.

None of this is in the Mass Deportation section of Project 2025.

But, the implementation of anything approaching it sets off a very plausible chain of events that could very quickly get us here. And, trust me, some of the authors of that plan know damn well that what I’m describing is a distinct possibility.

And amongst themselves they relish the thought.

And it doesn’t have to be this series of dominos.

Like every domino display, the shit spreads out in multiple trajectories. Take out the particulars and you have the same result.

I pray none of this happens.

But we are naïve if we don’t think it can.

We need to start preparing by simply getting our heads around the frightening reality in which we find ourselves.

This is a whole new world.